A new report out of the United Nations warns that despite growing territorial losses in the ongoing offensives against them, ISIL isn’t really breaking down, but simply adapting to the new facts on the ground, and remains a dangerous and capable organization.
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The report says that ISIL has some financial problems owing to the lost territory, but continues to collect taxes in its limited areas of control, and is supplementing that with “discrete” funding from supporters, and robberies. Their command structure also appears largely intact, with the report saying that they’ve been delegating specific actions down to local commanders more, and increasingly using encryption to prevent interception of their communications.
Unlike what this latest UN report would like to suggest, this has been the story of ISIL since it lost much of its momentum in major battles in places like Tikrit, Mosul, and Aleppo:
For one, the foreign-backed terrorist group has run out of runway. It is no longer able to show an ability to adapt to changing situations and recover quickly from what were seemingly major losses. It might be able to inspire self-starter terrorist actions in the West; revert back to guerrilla tactics; send suicide bombers to the liberated cities and towns; or redirect all the manpower and logistical resources at their disposal towards classic terror attacks; but that’s all really. They won’t be able to take over and control any territory like they used to.
With Iraqi and Syrian armies and allies on track for the final assaults against ISIL in the last remaining bastions and with reports that the remnants of the terrorist group are on the run almost everywhere, even in the last city of Raqqa, it is pretty much evident that ISIL is on the way out.
What’s significant though is that the ground offensives against ISIL have the blessing of the involvement of both Sunni and Shiite volunteer forces, backed by Iranian military advisors, Russian Air force, and Iraqis and Syrians from all backgrounds. Meaning, the military campaigns and the ensuing victories are not factional or self-serving, and hence they will not be short-termed after ISIL is gone.
The prevailing judgment is that the ongoing battles are between good and evil, between truth and lies. It’s no coincidence that ISIL has seen its caliphate losing so many cities and towns in recent months. The terror group has also lost the strategic territories near the Syrian-Iraqi border, and historic Palmyra in central Syria to major offensives.
The forces on the ground are now expanding their offensive in northern Syria, drawing closer to the terror capital of Raqqa, while in Iraq, they have launched a nationwide campaign to liberate the remaining villages and desert towns. They have already begun operations beyond the liberated city of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, in preparation for a major offensive to kill or drive the remaining terrorists out of the border.
As it happens, the situation is grim for the terror group on multiple fronts and the UN is wrong to assume that it still has what it takes to be on the offensive. Far from it: The Medieval caliphate is facing difficulties and losing the remaining territories. The current trends appear to be inexorably moving toward its ultimate defeat. ISIL has lost over 80% of the territory it once held in Iraq and some 70% of areas it controlled in Syria. These slow but steady battlefield losses are prompting ISIL to strike back against civilians with terrorist bombings.
If anything, ISIL now suffers from a crisis of confidence and is on the way out. It has shown that it is prepared to stop at nothing in creating human victims. The allied forces recognize that. The forces realize that if ISIL is going to be defeated, they themselves must do it - not just with bullets and bombs, but with a version of their faith that rejects sectarian violence and American military involvement. After all, the vast majority of the Iraqi and Syrian populations reject the American occupation and the genocidal tendencies of the kind ISIL preaches, and support the ongoing military campaigns against the terror group.
Long story short, the ongoing offensives and military actions can create the conditions for a political solution as well. That political solution is about creating polity that recognizes Sunni, Shiite, Kurdish, Alawite, and Christian interests. With political objectives aligned, the best that can be offered now is for all ethnic groups and communities to fight together and tenaciously in defense of their homelands. They owe it to the innocent victims of these conflicts, whether in Syria or Iraq, to keep the peace and their countries intact as unitary states with greater certitude after ISIL is fully destroyed.
