The Middle East navigating rapid changes in geopolitics and geo-economics

Bipartisan agreement on US foreign policy

After the USA suffered historic military defeats in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria it is struggling to reset its hegemonic foreign policy, esp., in the whole of Asia.

The defeats have weakened its global leadership
Whether the Democrats or Republicans win the elections, the USA will continue to implement its foreign policy, preset by its history. A few of its features are:

1. To support Israel and its lawless wars with military and economic aid and diplomatic support at the UNSC.

2. To maintain its sanctions on Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Palestine, and Lebanon.

3. To use its SWIFT payment system to enforce its economic sanctions and export controls in order to reverse its declining hegemony.

4. To maintain its military, naval, and air bases in the Middle East, of which there are 27 known ones with 40000 soldiers.

5. From its Bahrain base it will continue to patrol the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Sea– including the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb.

6. In the South China Seas, it is trying to gain a similar control but it is faced by a formidable opponent – China.

7. Its Indo-Paciﬁc military-economic strategy geographically incorporates South Asia and Central Asia – Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan.

Contradictory foreign policy

The USA uses its full powers to secure all its national interests in the Middle East. It is caught in the contradiction of security of oil and gas supplies from Arab countries while guaranteeing the security of Israel. It will pursue this contradiction after the elections because oil feeds its industrial and military machines.

The Arab populations – as distinct from their respective governments – are hostile to US economic, military, political, and religious ideas since the 1850s because Islam is the bedrock of their beliefs, civilizations, and cultures.

Beijing Declaration

On July 23, 2024 the 14 Palestinian factions signed this historic declaration. They put aside their differences for the greater good and for reconciliation and unity of all Palestinians. The biggest highlight in the declaration is on establishing an interim government with a focus on post-conﬂict reconstruction of Gaza. The strongest call is for establishing an independent state of Palestine in accordance with the relevant UN resolutions. The Declaration acknowledges that reconciliation is the internal
affair of the factions for which international support is necessary. It also notes that Palestine is at the core of the Middle East issue.

The ﬁrst step is lasting and sustainable ceaseﬁre and humanitarian aid in Gaza. The second step is application of the principle of ‘Palestinians governing Palestine.’ Third step is for Palestine to become full member state of the UN. Palestine is the key to achieving peace, security, and stability in the Middle East.

Representatives from Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Russia, and Turkiye attended the closing ceremony. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, PRC: July 23, 2024)

Another new major alliance to counter conﬂict

On Saturday, 19 October 2024, the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium Maritime Exercise (IMEX) commenced its exercise in Iran’s southern waters. Iran, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, Thailand, Pakistan, Qatar, and Bangladesh took part in the exercise (some as observers). The message of the drill is ‘peace, friendship, solidarity, and collective cooperation.’ Its aims are to ensure sustainable collective security and to expand multilateral cooperation to safeguard peace in the volatile region.
(Telesur: October 19, 2024)

Preparing for historic changes in the Middle East

As the economic and military power of the USA and its local surrogate state is weakening rapidly the nations of the region as individual nation-states and as regional conglomerate create new political alliances, which include international partners.

Some of the features of the alliances may include:

1. More effective balancing of traditional society and modern nation-state.
2. Developing a common Global South perspective.
3. Deﬁning their own independent and interdependent stances on critical regional and global issues
4. Developing a new historical starting point and shake off the dross of 19th century history.
5. Adapting to a rapidly evolving environment where foreign powers seek out their own national interests.
6. Resisting cultural imperialism.
7. Share their nations’ cultures, languages, multiple identities, interests, histories, value-systems, and visions with the world.
8. Advancing public diplomacy and people-to-people interactions.
9. Transforming adversarial relationships to friendly relationships and comprehensive strategic partnerships.
10. Transcending historical antagonisms through shared values of justice and compassion.
11. Striving for national, regional, and world peace.
12. Approaching bad or difﬁcult situations with optimism and hope.
13. Building industrialized societies with wider income distribution.
14. Moving beyond IR-4 to IR-5 and IR-6.
15. Prioritizing education, health, science, technology, and innovation.
16. Emphasizing core principles of independence, multilateralism, political trust, and international integration.
17. Balancing interests of foreign countries while pursuing non-negotiable sovereignty.
18. Recognizing interest-based calculations while advocating international law and multilateral cooperation.
19. Moderating unforgiving nature of world politics.
20. Creating conditions for the prevention of regional wars.
21. Being benefactors and beneﬁciaries of international cooperation.

New instruments for Global South

There are new instruments to assist countries to assert their sovereignty; industrialization of their economies, prioritization of science, technology, and innovation; and engagement in independent and interdependent relationships.

BRICS has developed a proposal for ‘Improvement of the International Monetary and Financial System’ (2024). It aims to ‘Strengthen Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security’. It is meant to transform the international monetary and ﬁnancial system; challenge the dominance of the US dollar; circumvent the SWIFT system; de-dollarize trade; facilitate cross-border investments; establish BRICS Grain Exchange and centers for trade in oil, natural gas, and gold – to mention only a few features.

The USA illegally holds $987-billion of frozen assets and 31 tons of gold of nine foreign countries, four of which are Muslim countries.

In 2023 China commercialized its own wireless communication technology (Nearlink) as an alternative to the USA’s Wi-Fi and Bluetooth.

China is also trialing its own navigation system (Quantum Navigation) as an alternative to USA’s GPS.

These are some of the essential tools for the modernization of nation-states, which the Middle East countries should factor in.

Expansion of political principle to legal principle

The land question in Palestine is one of political principle.

The UNSC Resolution 2735/2024 on Gaza ceaseﬁre, adopted on 10 June 2024, is the legal principle of the land question. It is meant to be implemented in three phases.

The Order by the International Court of Justice, dated 26 January 2024 in the case of Genocide in Gaza (South Africa v. Israel) set the legal basis for UNSC Resolution 2735.

Statecraft around the land question

Thus, began the mutation of the land question, as a political principle into a legal principle. It provides a fresh decolonial approach to designing statecraft with new securitized borders to demarcate and respect the competing material interests of internal social, political, and economic forces with sovereign rights. It gives an opportunity – from the perspective of the Global South – to refashion sovereignty, territorial integrity, human rights, non-interference in internal affairs, peaceful settlement of disputes, multilateralism, and the rule of law. This is reinforced by the Beijing Declaration.

The secret Sykes-Picot Treaty of 1916 between Britain and France set the international legal basis for the dismemberment of Bilad as-Shams into small colonial nation-states. The present consequences of this old Treaty will also ﬁnally collapse.

Palestinian social path of development

Thanks to the Palestinian struggle, the Global South now has the accelerated opportunity to explore and create their own social paths of development suitable to their own national and cultural interests. This takes place in the context of rapidly changing asymmetrical geopolitical and geo-economic dynamics as structural contradictions break down and genuine non-western modernization and industrialization take place – without the cyclical debt trap.

Policy development
While the Palestinians are focused on building strategic unity, in the midst of a genocidal war, there is a need to create new and original economic, education, health, and energy policies as preparation for independent governing. Otherwise, the west will draft and impose their neocolonial policies on them.

World Bank and Bank of Palestine
On 26 August 2024 two foreign-based strategic international development institutions jointly invested in special issuance shares in the Bank of Palestine whose paid-in capital is now $253-million. This gives the bank the capital adequacy to kickstart the growth and expansion in the economic recovery in the post-war reconstruction of Palestine. The two institutions are the International Finance Corporation (IFC), which is a member of the World Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) (The National: Sunil Singh: 27 August 2024). This is a signal for other USA and EU banks to invest and for the IMF to interfere in policy development. They will use the bank as a base to expand into
the Gulf, North Africa, and the Levant.
As a counter to the current neocolonial economy of Palestine, the Palestinians should consider at the appropriate time to join BRICS to beneﬁt from the proposed International Monetary and Financial System. This can be an ideal strategic alliance for Palestine.

Reconstruction
For reconstruction to begin the war must end.

While the quantitative aspect of damage to infrastructure is known to be 42-million tons of rubble and 1-million tons of toxic waste what cannot be known now is the qualitative damage to the human mind and emotions. This unknown factor will unfold over the next thirty years or so. Collective mechanisms need to be put in place now to address the socio-psychological damage through truth and reconciliation commission, dialogue aimed at incremental unity, arts and culture, appropriate curriculum development, policy development, and mutual consultation and cooperation.

Rubble removal alone is estimated to cost about $700-million over the next several years with the hidden danger of unexploded bombs and toxic contaminants of human remains.

The cost of rebuilding Gaza is estimated at $80-billion plus the cost of rebuilding the institutions of governance.

Donor countries
On 12 August 2024 the UN Development and Environment Programs and the Palestinian Authority jointly organized a meeting of donor countries and global charities in Ramallah. While they may pledge donations not all of them honor their pledges. There needs to be an assurance that payments for goods and services provided are not subject to World Bank control as it has happened previously.

The family
The family should be central to the reconstruction and rebuilding plans. The family is the basic institution of sumud or steadfastness as well as the basic unit of the new nation being born.

The rebuilding of social institutions like schools, universities, sports facilities, mosques, and churches needs to be prioritized so as to re-functionalize individuals, families, and communities socially as soon as possible. Families could be organized and employed in upscaling rubble into bricks and paving stones.

Conclusion
As Palestine is central to the Middle East it should be placed at the center of the reconﬁguration of new political alliances to prevent conﬂicts because Palestine holds historical lessons for the region and the world.

Addendum

Relating USA machination to Central Asia

USA has created new regional mechanisms such as:
1. US-Central Asia Trade and Investment Framework Agreement
2. Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project
3. USAID’s Central Asia Trade Forum

It claims to promote fair and reciprocal trade and investment; improvement of business climate of each country; levelling of playﬁeld for US businesses to compete; and contribution to the US economy and job creation for US citizens.

C5+1 Diplomatic Platform (2015)
It has created a regional diplomatic platform for the USA, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

It claims to advance ‘our shared goal’: an independent, prosperous, and secure Central Asia. C5+1 is centered on USA geopolitical and geo-economic interests. Its essence is the economy, energy, environment, and security. It established a Secretariat in 2022.

Under public diplomacy it develops people-to-people interactions, entrepreneurship, media capacity building, and women’s empowerment. In this there is ‘net beneﬁt to the US economy’.

(US Department of State: Key Topics – Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs. Accessed: 13 October 2024 and The White House: Remarks by President Biden at the APEC CEO Summit, San Francisco, CA: November 16, 2023)

Biodata

Dr Haroon Aziz’s primary discipline is quantum physics. His secondary disciplines are history and biography. He is the author of more than twenty-ﬁve books spanning natural science and the humanities.